Bell,+A


 * Stage One Initial Proposal**

-number of divorces per year vs. Married couples -does smoking drugs affect the growth of teenagers -does population affect the number of teen pregnancy -teen Pregnancy rates vs. abortion rate -crime vs. Unemployment -does education effect income -does income affect how many kids in a family
 * Brainstorming:**

-Does population affect the number of teen pregnancies?
 * Chosen Topic: **

Independent variable (x)= population Dependent Variable (y)= teen pregnancies
 * Variables Being Tested: **

**Background Information:**
 * U.S. has the third largest population in the world (311,904,000)
 * U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate out of all countries in the world
 * • Between ages 15-19
 * • 55.6 births per 1000 women
 * -abortion rate 30.2
 * • Hispanic teenagers (81.8 per 1,000)
 * • Non-Hispanic black teenagers (64.2)
 * • Non-Hispanic white teenagers (27.2)


 * Hypothesis: **

I think that there will be a moderately positive correlation between population and number of teen pregnancies because if there is a bigger population there is more people to become pregnant with. Also in more populated areas there is most likely a “ghetto”, which might influence the number of teen pregnancies because of factors such as dropping out of school, income, drug abuse and race.


 * Raw Data: **

Arkansas 2,855,390 California 36,756,666 Colorado 4,861,515 Delaware 873,092 Florida 18,328,340 Georgia 9,685,744 Illinois 12,901,563 Montana 967,440 New York 19,541,453 Ohio 11,485,910 Pennsylvania 12,448,279 Rhode Island 1,050,788 Tennessee 6,214,888 Wisconsin 5,654,774 Wyoming 544,270
 * State Name Population**

Arkansas 61.8 California 38.4 Colorado 42.5 Delaware 40.4 Florida 42.8 Georgia 52.0 Illinois 38.1 Montana 40.7 New York 25.5 Ohio 41.0 Pennsylvania 31.5 Rhode Island 28.5 Tennessee 55.6 Wisconsin 31.3 Wyoming 49.2
 * Birth Rate for Teenagers 15-19 years per 1000 girls**


 * Stage 2: Refining Stage One**

Even though it could be argued that boys are underrepresented in this survey it wasn’t relevant to ask them because they do not get pregnant.
 * Sampling Bias-** Sampling bias is the type of bias that fits the best with the rate data that I have collected because it only looks at 10 out of the 51 states. This is limiting my research to only a portion of the population meaning some states aren’t accounted for. Although I only picked ten states, I tried to get a variety of population sizes so I could more accurately see if the population actually affects teenage pregnancy rates. I think that if I found the stats for all of the states it would have given me around the same answer I’m going to find with the states I picked because of the wide range of population sizes selected.


 * One Variable Statistics**




 * Stage 2: Refining Stage One**

Even though it could be argued that boys are underrepresented in this survey it wasn’t relevant to ask them because they do not get pregnant.
 * Sampling Bias-** Sampling bias is the type of bias that fits the best with the rate data that I have collected because it only looks at 10 out of the 51 states. This is limiting my research to only a portion of the population meaning some states aren’t accounted for. Although I only picked ten states, I tried to get a variety of population sizes so I could more accurately see if the population actually affects teenage pregnancy rates. I think that if I found the stats for all of the states it would have given me around the same answer I’m going to find with the states I picked because of the wide range of population sizes selected.

**Cluster Sample**- I chose a variety of states, which are representative of the whole population. There are 15 states with a wide range of populations for each state and although the entire population isn’t looked at this random sample it would show around the same results if I were to take the whole United States into consideration.


 * Data Analysis:**

One Variable Analysis: in an excel document I used the values I found for each state and found standard deviation etc. to further understand if population really does effect the pregnancy rate

Two Variable Analysis: I plan to use the information gathered in the tables above (one variable stats) to find if there is a direct correlation between each set of data. This is going to tell me if i predicted right or wrong my hypothesis. I will look at factors that would effect the answer once I've created the graphs, which help to visualize the information better.


 * Conclusion:**

My hypothesis was wrong. The correlation is closer to moderately weak and negative rather than moderate and positive. It is proven that population doesn’t effect teen pregnancy, therefore there are other hidden variables that influence the teen pregnancy birth rate. If I were to do this again I would define my search more and ask whether income or education effects teen and if they get pregnant or not.


 * Bibliography: **

Explaining Variation in Teen Pregnancy Rates by State (2010, November 24). In //The Society Pages//. Retrieved December 6, 2010, from http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2010/11n /24/explaining-variation-in-teen-pregnancy-rates-by-state-race-and-sex-education/

U.S. Population by State (2010). In //Infoplease//. Retrieved December 6, 2010, from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004986.html